As we head into the weekend with its rainy, stormy forecast, you may be noticing more headlines about a potential “super El Niño” developing later this year. Forecasters say there’s a strong likelihood El Niño conditions will take shape in 2026 and persist into early 2027, raising questions about what it could mean for weather across the U.S.
For those of us in the tree care industry, the natural question is simple: Does this mean more storms and more cleanup work?
The answer is a bit more nuanced than a simple yes or no. A super El Niño doesn’t necessarily mean more storms overall, but it does tend to change where, when, and how damaging weather shows up.
A Year of Shifting Patterns, Not Uniform Impacts
At its core, El Niño is a large-scale climate pattern driven by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific. That warming shifts atmospheric circulation, especially the jet stream that steers storms across North America. When the jet stream shifts, so do the storms. That’s why El Niño years are less about an increase in total storm activity and more about a redistribution of risk.
In practical terms, some regions may see fewer major events, while others could see more frequent or more intense episodes of rain, wind, or flooding.
What to Expect Across the U.S.
One of the most consistent signals during El Niño involves the Atlantic hurricane season. Stronger upper-level winds tend to disrupt storm formation, which is why forecasters are currently calling for a below-average hurricane season in 2026. That may sound like good news, and in many ways it is. But it’s important to note that “below average” doesn’t mean “quiet.” Even in El Niño years, it only takes one storm in the wrong place to create significant damage along with huge demands for cleanup and recovery services.
Where El Niño often has a more noticeable impact is during the fall and winter months. As the jet stream shifts south, it tends to bring more frequent storms across the southern tier of the country. Regions stretching from California through the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast often see wetter conditions, with an increased risk of heavy rainfall and flooding. At the same time, northern parts of the country frequently experience warmer, less snowy winters overall.
That contrast, wetter in the south, milder in the north, is one of the classic El Niño patterns.
Why This Matters for Tree Care Members
For tree care companies, these shifts can have very real operational impacts. In wetter regions, the combination of saturated soils and repeated storm systems can significantly increase the likelihood of tree failure. Trees that might otherwise withstand normal wind events become more vulnerable when root systems are compromised by prolonged moisture. Heavy, wet snow, when it does occur, can also place additional stress on limbs and canopies.
In other words, a Super El Niño doesn’t just change how often storms happen, it can change how much damage they cause.
Just as importantly, El Niño years often bring more variability. Rather than a steady stream of storm-related work, companies may see shorter, more intense bursts of cleanup demand tied to specific weather events. Research also shows that El Niño can contribute to extreme swings in precipitation, including heavy rainfall and localized flooding events. That kind of “spiky” demand can be challenging from both a staffing and planning perspective.
A Reminder About Uncertainty
As with any long-range forecast, there are limits to what we can predict. NOAA emphasizes that even strong El Niño events do not guarantee specific outcomes, they simply increase the likelihood of certain patterns. Local weather conditions, timing, and other atmospheric factors will still play a major role in determining what actually happens on the ground.
Where This Connects to TCIA’s Advocacy Work
If there’s one takeaway from a potential “super El Niño,” it’s this: shifting weather patterns don’t just test operations, they test preparedness. And that’s exactly where TCIA’s advocacy priorities come into focus.
A year defined by more variable storm patterns, heavier precipitation in certain regions, and unpredictable demand reinforces the importance of having clear safety standards, a strong workforce, and consistent regulatory frameworks in place before events happen, not after.
Take safety, for example. Conditions associated with El Niño, saturated soils, repeated storm events, and heavier precipitation, can increase the likelihood of tree failure and create more hazardous working environments. At the same time, momentum is building at the federal level around the development of a dedicated OSHA tree care standard. That effort is about more than compliance, it’s about ensuring that arborists have the guidance and protections they need to work safely in exactly these kinds of conditions.
Workforce development is another area where El Niño highlights existing challenges. In many parts of the country, companies may experience uneven demand; periods of relative calm followed by sudden spikes tied to storm events. That kind of volatility puts real pressure on staffing, training, and retention. TCIA’s ongoing work to strengthen the workforce pipeline, support training, and advocate for practical workforce policies becomes even more important when companies need to scale up quickly and safely.
There’s also a regulatory dimension. As storm patterns shift geographically, companies may find themselves operating across different jurisdictions or facing varying rules related to equipment, operations, or plant health care. TCIA’s efforts to promote consistent, science-based regulations, particularly in areas like pesticide policy, help reduce that complexity and allow members to focus on doing their work safely and effectively.
Finally, El Niño underscores something larger: the growing conversation around resilience. Increased attention to flooding, storm recovery, and community preparedness often brings renewed focus on the role of trees and the professionals who manage them. Whether it’s urban forestry funding, infrastructure planning, or disaster response, TCIA’s advocacy work continues to position tree care as an essential part of keeping communities safe and functional in the face of changing conditions.
The Bottom Line
A potential “super El Niño” doesn’t point to a universally busier or slower year, it points to a different kind of year.
We may see fewer large-scale hurricane responses in some regions, but more localized storm and flooding impacts in others. We may see less consistency in demand, but more intense response periods when events do occur.
And importantly, it reinforces that the challenges facing our industry, safety, workforce capacity, regulatory clarity, and recognition, aren’t theoretical. They show up in real time when weather patterns shift, and communities rely on skilled professionals to respond.
Weather patterns may change, but the role of our industry doesn’t. Whether it’s a major storm event, a slow-moving flood system, or a series of smaller but impactful weather episodes, tree care professionals are part of how communities prepare, respond, and recover.
And in a year like this, that work, and the advocacy that supports it, matters more than ever.
